Advice For The 4 Remaining Contestants On Survivor: Micronesia – Fans vs. Favorites

We’re down to the Final 4 contestants on Survivor: Micronesia – Fans vs. Favorites. This season has been full of injury and ignorance, surprises and strategies, but these four women have somehow managed to make it to the very last days of the game. Which will be the next to go? And which one of the four will win the million dollar prize?

Parvati

If Parvati had played the game with more finesse she’d probably be the favorite to win right now. She’s gotten a lot of the credit/blame for moves that Cirie actually instigated, but she’s been way too out in the open with her maneuvers and alliances. There’s few on the jury who don’t feel like she betrayed them in some way and that’s going to come back to haunt her. She’s made good moves if you take emotions out of the equation, but the game doesn’t work that way.

It’s not likely that the jury will be able to forgive her and forget everything she’s done and agree that she’s been the best player. Even if she makes this argument a superior argument from Cirie or Amanda could easily trump hers and would be more convincing and would probably get more votes. She probably wants to get rid of Amanda and try her luck against Natalie and Cirie. Of course, she can’t actually get rid of Amanda herself without risking losing Amanda’s vote so she would have to throw the challenge and hope Amanda doesn’t win and whoever does gets rid of Amanda. That’s a lot of hoping. Parvati might try to negotiate this, but that too could backfire because the others could easily bring this negotiation up at the final Tribal Council and steal Amanda’s vote away from her.

I’d say that Parvati’s chances of winning are slim to none. Her only chance is if she can make the jury believe that all of the strategic moves were hers and she can seem humble enough that they forgive her. I don’t see it happening.

Cirie

As she did in her original season, Cirie is showing some mad strategic skills. Cirie went in to both games knowing she couldn’t hope to compete physically so she’d have to compete mentally. She’s done very well.

If you go back and look at a lot of the big moves over the past weeks, especially since the merge, you’ll notice that the ideas actually came from Cirie. Cirie was the one who orchestrated the ouster of Ozzy. She was also the one who suggested that the women convince Erik to give his immunity necklace to Natalie. Everyone thought it was too crazy too work, but Cirie not only came up with the idea, but carried it through by doing some acting with Erik and then by having Amanda and Parvati “draw the battle lines” at Tribal Council. The whole thing was quite brilliant from a game playing point of view.

The only problem is, will anyone in the jury actually know or believe that Cirie actually did those things? Will they forgive her for betraying them and give her credit for playing a good game? I think Cirie has a fantastic chance of making the final three. In fact, I think it’s a virtual lock as Amanda and Natalie appear to be the two that are targeted for elimination at the next Tribal Council. However, it will take some smart jury members (which she doesn’t really have) and one heck of an argument in front of the jury to win this for Cirie. I don’t think her odds are that great.

Natalie

Natalie is only in this game out of pure luck and complete, mind-numbingly stupid moves on the parts of other players. One could make the argument that it was better to keep her than Alexis last week because Alexis is a motivational speaker and a nice girl who might have gotten votes from the jury. Okay. But, as brilliant as the move was this week against Erik, it was stupid on the part of the other girls. Sure, Erik was winning immunity, but did they really think he would win in front of the jury? If he were to keep winning it would mean that one of the three girls wouldn’t make it to the Final Tribal Council. However, it would increase the odds of winning for the other two. Natalie might not be a challenge threat as great as Erik but she could still win the challenge just like anyone else could. It was a bad move.

However, she does have at least one vote on the jury in Alexis and possibly more depending on how things go. She will definitely get credit for the Jason blindside so that might win her a vote or two. I don’t think she would win over any of the other three girls so all of them should want to take her to the finals. Her goal should be to get rid of Amanda. Actually, that should probably be everyone’s goal.

Amanda

Any way I look at it right now I think Amanda’s got the best shot at winning. Of course, I said the same thing before the final four of China too and then Amanda had a virtual meltdown, took her main competitor to the final three and turned in a stunningly bad jury performance that cost her the win. I don’t think she’ll repeat that mistake this time.

Amanda already had several votes on the jury, but her acting job on the Alexis blindside was satisfying for the jury to watch so I think she’ll get a lot of credit for that. There may be questions about her riding Ozzy’s coattails for a long time, but she could turn that on Cirie and Parvati and say they rode Ozzy and James’ coattails as well. I think she could argue that she did enough strategy at the end to show that she wasn’t just along for the ride. Her biggest threat will probably be Cirie so she should probably try to figure out a way to get rid of Cirie in the next immunity challenge. If Amanda goes up against Parvati and Natalie I think her chances are very, very good of walking away with the win. Even against Cirie she’s got a good shot if she performs well in front of the jury.

Erik Eliminated

Poor, poor, Erik. I can’t help but feel sorry for the kid. What a completely awful way to be remembered for someone who was considered a super-fan of the show. The guy obviously doesn’t have much experience with women and he didn’t have any idea what was going on. He isn’t the first guy that’s fallen for tricks like that and he won’t be the last. Unfortunately, he got schooled on Survivor in front of millions of people.

Conclusion

I think this is a two horse race. Either Amanda or Cirie or both will be in the final three and one of them will win. I just don’t think Natalie or Parvati can pick up enough votes to pull it off. I suppose it could be possible if Amanda and Cirie both stay and split the vote somehow, but my money is still on one of them – Amanda is my first choice and is the likely winner is almost every scenario.

Merged – Dabu

Natalie Bolton, Cirie Fields, Amanda Kimmel, Parvati Shallow

The Jury

Erik Reichenbach (Ep 13), Alexis Jones (Ep12), James Clement (Ep12), Jason Siska (Ep11), Ozzy Lusth (Ep10), Eliza Orlins (Ep9)