According to Fantasy Moguls, Speed Racer only managed to pull in an estimated $6.5M on Friday which targets it for a very disappointing $23M to $28M weekend. Iron Man on the other hand hauled in an impressive $14.75M on Friday alone which puts its projected weekend haul at a massive $49M. What Happens In Vegas is also projecting disappointing numbers with $6.25M for Friday and a little over $17M for the weekend.

Speed Racer’s overall weekend take will depend largely on how well it does with families and kids on Saturday afternoon showings so the numbers could go up more than projected. It should also be noted that most analysts expect the film to do very well in many overseas (esp. Asian) markets over the summer and the year so it’s not likely the film will actually be a flop.

Here are the weekend estimates as of Friday night:

FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Iron Man (Paramount) – $14.75M – $3,588 PTA – $141.38M cume
2. NEW – Speed Racer (Warner Bros) – $6.5M – $1,803 PTA – $6.5M cume
3. NEW – What Happens in Vegas (Fox) – $6.25M – $1,944 PTA – $6.25M cume
4. Made of Honor (Sony) – $2.61M – $955 PTA – $21.2M cume
5. Baby Mama (Universal) – $1.98M – $755 PTA – $36.5M cume
6. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) – $1.32M- $558 PTA – $48.2M cume
7. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros) – $1.23M – $547 PTA – $28.7M cume
8. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) – $525,000 – $305 PTA – $46.5M cume
9. Prom Night (Sony) – $490,000 – $334 PTA – $42.2M cume
10. Redbelt (Sony Classics) – $320,000 – $233 PTA – $415,000 cume

WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. Iron Man (Paramount) – $49M – $11,919 PTA – $175.63M cume
2. NEW – Speed Racer (Warner Bros) – $23M – $6,378 PTA – $23M cume
3. NEW – What Happens in Vegas (Fox) – $17.31M – $5,384 PTA – $17.31M cume
4. Made of Honor (Sony) – $7.83M – $2,865 PTA – $26.5M cume
5. Baby Mama (Universal) – $5.84M – $2,226 PTA – $40.5M cume
6. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) – $4.18M- $1,758 PTA – $51.1M cume
7. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros) – $3.71M – $1,640 PTA – $31.2M cume
8. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) – $1.89M – $1,096 PTA – $47.9M cume
9. Prom Night (Sony) – $1.39M – $953 PTA – $43.1M cume
10. Nim’s Island (Fox) – $1.28M- $800 PTA – $44.2M cume

Semi-Pro managed to open at number one with an estimated $15.3M gross, but the $4,906 average from 3,121 sites but did not even come close to matching the numbers of the actor’s other recent hits like Anchorman ($28.4M), Blades of Glory ($33M), and Talladega Nights ($47M). Those films were all rated PG-13 while Semi-Pro was rated R.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 WILL FERRELL LIVE ACTION OPENINGS

1. Talladega Nights – $47M
2. Blades of Glory – $33M
3. Elf – $31.1M
4. Anchorman – $28.4M
5. Kicking & Screaming – $20.15M
6. Bewitched – $20.13M
7. Old School – $17.4M
8. Zoolander – $15.5M
9. Semi-Pro – $15.3M (estimate)
10. Stranger Than Fiction – $13.4M

The failure of Semi-Pro to open big despite massive advertising and little to no competition should be of concern to only New Line (now Warner Brothers) and Will Ferrell but to pretty much every other Hollywood Studio as well. At some point, they are going to have to sit down and figure out what went wrong.

But what did go wrong? The previews were funny. Will Ferrell is funny. There was a ton of hype for the film. How did everything go so wrong so quickly?

I haven’t seen the film yet (I guess I’m not alone), but I would proffer that the failure had something to do with one of the following:

• Early Reviews Being Bad – I find it doubtful that fans of this type of film or of Will Ferrell would worry too much about what early reviewers had to say about the movie. It would make sense that the second or third weekend would be poor if everyone coming out of the first showings were bad-mouthing it, but early bad reviews can’t account for a bad first weekend.
• The Early Movie Season Isn’t As Big As The Studios Think – It’s possible that people just aren’t going to the movies in large numbers at this moment. It wasn’t that long ago that opening a movie in February or March was a death sentence. Maybe Hollywood has been spoiled by some big movies opening at this time of year and thinks that it’s now the rule and ot the exception.
• The Movie Being Rated R – I think this is likely one of the largest problems. A core group of fans for this type of comedy is teenage boys who simply couldn’t get in to see the film.
• Will Ferrell Has Lost His Touch – Maybe people are just tired of seeing Will Ferrell in this type of movie? It seems strange that we castigate stars like Ferrell when they try to step out of the roles we’re comfortable seeing them in yet we do the same thing when they keep giving us the same thing over and over. I’ve heard people talk about being tired of his act so this could definitely be a part of it.

What do you think? Why did Semi-Pro do so poorly this weekend? Did you see it? Do you plan to see it? What do you think went wrong?